At long last, after a grueling summer of seemingly daily press conferences and a failed superstar receiver trade and another frisky-turned-.500 Red Sox season, the 2024 New England Patriots season is a real thing that’s actually happening this weekend. We made it.
One little catch: it’s easy to say in April that the plan, in theory, is to start Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, let Drake Maye get the redshirt year that anecdotally is the secret sauce to getting our very own Patrick Mahomes, or at the very least our very own Jordan Love, and take this season as a grueling-but-necessary first step in the Patriots’ road back to the AFC royalty list.
It’s a little harder when that reality is staring you in the face, a là “next year is the year I run a marathon!” and then looking at your couch-to-marathon guide on January 2nd and realizing “wait. Running, 40 miles a week? This sounds f*cking awful!”
If you’re one of those hopeful faithful that sees a path to the Pats and double-digit wins this season, reader, I admire your optimism. But if you are not, take heart! It’s exceedingly rare for an NFL team to have the opportunity to start almost literally from scratch with a new Head Coach, a new General Manager, a blue-chip rookie quarterback prospect, a metric ton of salary cap space, and arguably zero bad contracts or overpaid veterans on the roster weighing you down. And with that, comes about a hundred questions — questions that are going to be answered in short order, some right when the season kicks off on Sunday in Cincinnati!
Seriously, think about just how much we don’t know about the 2024 Patriots. Or how much we think we know, but we really don’t have proof of concept for at all, just months of conjecture and “well, this is what they ran before” and film cutups that may or may not even make their way onto the field?
That’s what we’re here to get into today. Think of it like half scavenger hunt, half “if this gamble the Patriots made actually works out, we might be cooking with gas here”.
Starting with perhaps the biggest assumption I’ve noticed this offseason:
How much of the Belichick defense carries over with Jerod Mayo and DeMarcus Covington?
It kind of feels like a truism that’s just been repeated enough times that we’ve all accepted it; the Patriots defense will be more or less the same as it was last year, schematically and (obviously) personnel-wise. The latter point seemed like a sure shot until about 3 weeks ago, when the Matt Judon trade that kind of seemed inevitable finally came to pass, and then when the shocking news of Christian Barmore’s blood clots diagnosis that will almost certainly keep him out for the season became public. And aside from those two — which is a VERY big “aside” — the defensive roster appears to be ready to rock as we expected, with cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones returning from injury, and notable contract extensions for safeties Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger, linebackers Jehlani Tavai and Anfernee Jennings, and letting pass-rusher Josh Uche roll the dice and bet on himself.
Here’s what I’m wondering if we’re taking for granted, though; are Jerod Mayo and DeMarcus Covington going to pick up right where Bill Belichick left off, just like we all thought? Or do they take their chance to put their stamp on an objectively very talented group of guys, and remake the defense in their own image?
For what it’s worth, Covington had this to say in February after his promotion, which sounds like more of the same ol’ same ol’, but if you read it closely, it’s just the same wish list that every defensive coordinator has, without actually saying much of anything about how they’re going to get it done:
“I would say the defense wouldn’t change as much, but when you turn on the tape, I think what we want to see is a physical team, a team that plays with good discipline and fundamentals, and a team that attacks the football and takes it away from an opponent,” Covington said on Wednesday. “That’s what we’re trying to look for with our defense, and you know, a team that goes out there and plays together for one another. That type of togetherness, that’s what we’re really looking for.”
Tough, disciplined, good fundamentals, attacks the ball, gets takeaways, plays together. That could be a made-up Charissa Thompson sideline report, and none of us would ever know anything a bit different.
How the defense is going to get there is the fun part. Do Jerod and DeMarcus stick with Bill’s classic bespoke-game-plan approach, painstakingly tailoring each game plan to the specific offense they’re tasked with stopping each week? Or do they adopt a more “this is our identity/we run what we run” style, like the Legion of Boom Seahawks, or the current Jim-Schwartz-led Cleveland Browns defense? Do they stick with the bend-but-don’t-break approach that made Bill a legend, or do they lean into the objectively fun Brian Flores method of sending the house every other snap? Does Christian Gonzalez fulfill the prophecy as a Stephon Gilmore-esque island, erasing #1 receivers week after week, or do they have other plans for the promising sophom*ore? And what role does his draft classmate Keion White play in all of this, especially with the aforementioned Matt Judon trade leaving a massive void in sack production?
Watching the evolution and/or next generation of this defense, or whatever combination of all of the above it happens to be, is going to be fascinating.
Drake Maye Watch
This is an easy one. Every week that Jacoby Brissett starts — who, god bless him, probably has one of the most unenviable jobs in professional sports right now — is going to throw a fresh cherry bomb in the mailbox of “let the kid play!”. Barring the 98th-percentile outcome that Jacoby Brissett has his own Geno-ssance, of course. But more than likely, Brissett is his normal 2:1 TD-to-INT, 61.3% completion percentage, 60-something QBR self, who occasionally has moments of brilliance but also might come up with a backbreaking turnover that effectively ices the game.
So every week, the question will be asked, win, lose, or draw. It doesn’t even need to be after a loss — fair or not, if Jacoby has a 1-TD, 1-INT, 195-yard effort, or generally plays acceptably, but then undoes all his goodwill with a strip-sack, the calls to “play the rookie!” get turned up to 11. How long can Jerod Mayo and Alex Van Pelt hold their line that Jacoby’s experience and the mental and physical tools that come with it mean he’s the man for the job, despite Drake’s inarguably superior raw talent? And when does (gulp) ownership get involved, even if Mayo disagrees on what’s best for the team and the long-term vision?
However we get there, that first Drake Maye start is going to hit like your first beer after finishing Whole 30. Might as well be around to see what finally pushes the team into it.
Which kinda/sorta brings us to our next (NFL Network anchor voice) BURNING QUESTION:
What does Alex Van Pelt’s offense really look like?
This is the one getting referenced earlier that we seem to think we know everything there is to know about the 2024 Pats on the offensive side of the ball. With all due respect to all the hard work and film grinding that’s gone into reading the tea leaves of what Alex Van Pelt’s scheme of choice is....we’re basing this all on his last stop with the Cleveland Browns. Granted, AVP held down the offensive coordinator title for the last four seasons, although he didn’t actually call plays for any of them (outside of that one 2021 wild card game where Kevin Stefanski had Covid).
So, as we all know, the preseason is a useful barometer for exactly nothing, as far as what teams actually want their identity to be when the real games start. What is this offense really going to lean into when it matters? Does AVP stick with the West Coast passing game, heavy play-action, and wide-zone run scheme that it seems like half the league is running some flavor of these days? How does he use some of our more fun chess pieces, like RB Antonio Gibson, or sophom*ore sparkplug receiver Pop Douglas? Will the Patriots come out in heavy packages more often than not, running sets with multiple tight ends, or more than one running back in the backfield? Do they have enough tricks up their sleeve to run no-huddle or spread the offense out 4 or even 5 wide proficiently?
(that “proficiently” part, after the Bill O’Brien experience last season, is kinda the important part. BoB’s lasting contribution to this generation of Patriots football is “your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should”)
Assuming that the Patriots’ offensive line doesn’t sandbag the whole offense from the jump, to the point where nothing works, watching the team’s first real marked departure from some variation of the Erhardt-Perkins offense that defined the Brady era is going to keep football dorks like us up at night every week when the game tape drops. Hopefully in a fun way, and not in a “can’t sleep, clowns will eat me” way.
Let’s talk about something we can all enjoy:
Rhamondre chasing the Patriots all-time rushing record
If you didn’t catch this when Rhamondre got his well-deserved 4-year contract extension this spring, it may sound absurd; Rhamondre Stevenson, he of the 2,265 career rushing yards, the all-time New England Patriots leading rusher? That can’t be right! ....can it?
It can. Mostly because the Patriots, for as many great running backs as they’ve had over the years, actually have the lowest all-time yardage record for their franchise leading rusher. That’s a little bit of a clunky way of saying that when you think of every other team’s all-time rushing leader — the Emmitt Smiths and Barry Sanders and and Walter Paytons of the world, who are all closer to 20,000 yards than they are 10,000 — the Pats’ record-holder, Sam Cunningham, and his 5,453 career rushing yards look right there for the taking by comparison. If Rhamondre can stay healthy, all he has to do is average a tidy 800 rushing yards a season, and the all-time Patriots rushing title is his.
Fun fact, even given the Patriots offense of the last couple years that was so bad they found a way to take the “fun” out of “dysfunction”, Mondre still average 755 rush yards a season. And keep in mind that includes his rookie season of being a de facto backup to Damien Harris, until injuries finally let Rhamondre shine like Bill always hoped he could when he drafted him.
A new franchise record, after the dynasty era? In THIS economy?!
Which wide receiver becomes the top dog?
How many times have we heard it this offseason: “they have a bunch of 2s and 3s, but no REAL NUMBER ONE”
Yawn. We get it. Fantasy term or not, the whole “number one receiver” thing has been a thorn in New England’s side from the acrimonious departure of Randy Moss to the failed experiments of Aaron Dobson and N’Keal Harry to one of Bill’s more notable late-career faceplants with DeVante Parker. And while there’s still no prototypical X receiver on this roster, the Patriots have more fresh wide receiver talent in 2024 than they’ve had in.....a while. The question for 2024 is, especially if more heavy packages with only 2 wide receivers on the field are going to be on the menu, which 2 receivers get the nod? And then from there, which one does Jacoby and/or Drake clearly build that fabled “trust” with the most?
Pop Douglas probably has the inside track, given that he’s got a year of experience under his belt and figures to be a quarterback’s best friend over the middle and as a move-the-chains option. But rookie second-rounder Ja’Lynn Polk profiles as a much more complete receiving option, with his 6’1” stature, strength to get off press, inside-outside experience, and his strength at the catch point, and on paper, the top job could be his for the taking.
There’s a joke in here somewhere about the Tyquan Thornton redemption tour paying dividends into East Coast DK Metcalf, but that’s better suited for our penultimate must-watch category....
Was the class of 2022 and 2023 the problem? Or Matt Patricia/Bill O’Brien?
When Bailey Zappe was finally, mercifully, cut and ended up failing upwards on to the Kansas City Chiefs, the jokes were plentiful. But even if we disregard the 5% of Bailey Zappe True Believers, there still seemed to be a notable contingent with the good sense to note “well, his rookie season, he came into Matt Patricia learning that offense is hard, actually, and then we all saw the back half of last season, where Bill O’Brien’s offense arguably torpedoed the entire season before it even started. There might be a decent backup QB in there somewhere?”
Somehow, though, it doesn’t seem like anyone else from the 2022 or 2023 draft classes was afforded the same courtesy. Cole Strange. Tyquan Thornton. Sidy Sow. Even Kayshon Boutte, although he’s got a nice little cult following of his own.
Those first three, though, have had some of the worst luck a top-100-ish draft pick could possibly have, getting drafted into offenses run by men who either were in way over their head, or seemed to think they had the 2012 Patriots ready to rock, and not the 2023 Artist Formerly Known As The Patriots. Cole Strange seems to be on track to miss most or maybe even all of the 2024 campaign, but the reports are that Tyquan Thornton has allegedly been killing it in camp, and Sidy Sow may well miss Week 1, but he was consistently penciled in as a starter last year, mostly at guard, but occasionally at tackle duty. If he can get back in the mix, does a new offensive vision help Sow too?
The last one of these was going to be “just how in deep sh*t are we with this offensive line, REALLY”, but, that one should be pretty clear after about 2 quarters on Sunday afternoon.
In the meantime, take this helpful checklist into the games with you this season (spiritually, not literally), and if your fantasy team can’t bring you some joy, hopefully at least looking for the beginnings of a Rocky Montage that points to the future Patriots being an NFL team with a puncher’s chance in every game and not the death rattle of the greatest dynasty in professional football history is motivation enough to throw on your jersey on Sundays!
Although, if you’re like me, those Mac Jones and Matt Judon trades might have resulted in a bit of a pickle/opportunity: I need a new jersey for an actual current Patriot.
